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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
As many of you know, I really really like a good deal. I'm not very price sensitive buy just like feeling that I'm not being stupid.

As I need a new car to replace my beloved manual transmission wagon that went swimming, I'm trying to pull the trigger on something but can't because I believe used car prices are going to tank very soon.

But how much? I know this is hard to say for all used cars but as supply increases rapidly this year and the economy cools, I can't see any other outcome but a major reset in prices.

Do you guys predict a 20% drop across the board? If so, when will it hit? A 10% drop? When and for how long?

If I buy a 90k used range rover and sell it in 2 years for 50k while having a 30k repair bill during that time I am going to feel like a real sucker..

But if I get a 70k mercedes and resell it in a few years for 50k then I'll feel pretty decent.

I'd feel like a champion if I get a 15k car for 3 months and then prices drop 20% and I get that Mercedes for 56k and sell it for 50 in a few years.

What does your crystal ball tell you?
 

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I don’t foresee the used car market dropping rapidly. There may be a small correction within the next year, but certainly not 20%. Hell, maybe not even 10%.

New car prices skyrocketed, and I don’t foresee manufacturers lowering their prices. Buying the new model some people want may now be out of reach, so they start looking for used models . This means the demand for used, even expensive used, will be high.

YMMV
 

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Life's too short to play a waiting game. If money isn't an issue just pull the trigger and be happy. What I am kicking myself on is not buying an 812 Superfast when I could have got one for 290-320k all day. Now they're 400-450k. Could have made a killing. Now I'm looking at the poor man F12 and those even went up from 180-220 to 240-280k. :rolleyes:
 
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Life's too short to play a waiting game. If money isn't an issue just pull the trigger and be happy. What I am kicking myself on is not buying an 812 Superfast when I could have got one for 290-320k all day. Now they're 400-450k. Could have made a killing. Now I'm looking at the poor man F12 and those even went up from 180-220 to 240-280k. :rolleyes:
i am not into turbo cars, but yeah remember pista was under 400k in 2021(now 550), and speciale A was 600-700k (now over 1mil)..812 is coming down fast though, same as all v10 lambos. Stay away from mass produced cars (over 3-4k worldwide) it should be safer. But heck even the speciale is coming down to 500 from almost 600. Currently many models are already down 10%, but since they are not moving, the dealers just stopped discounting.
The craziest price drop i saw so far was a low mileage bright color SV roadster that drop from 670 to 550, sold in 2 days tho. Prob going through a divorce lol
 

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Depends on what you're looking for. I think Gen 1's with a gated manual(V8 or V10) aren't going to come down much, if at all. You definitely won't find any at pre-covid levels. The R-tronic models will probably still depreciate slowly and eventually plateau. Gen 2 values will come down 10-15% along with the normal depreciation.
 

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Check out the Carrera T. They haven’t moved much up or down historically. It may not be the most exciting car, but at least you won’t lose much. Other similar situations are the V12 Vantage or Vanquish. I always overlooked the Vanquish until I saw it in the flesh. They are beautiful in person. Good luck


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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
I think these mass produced cars have to come down significantly.

What has happened to car loan rates in the last few months and what does that make on the monthly payment for the average buyer? I know with mortgage rates some homes have seen a 30% increase in the monthly payment due to rising ratesMost t buyers really only care about the monthly payment so if rates go up then value goes down.

And isn't it true that there is going to be a flood of new cars coming to market now that chips are no longer in short supply?

Again, I really don't follow this all that closely but I recall in 2009 when I was buying a boat I flew to Miami and basically just offered everyone half price until someone bit and it worked. Obviously this is not that extreme but I feel like people often underestimate the price swings between good and bad markets.

I can see used range rovers dropping by 30% or more.

My new lead candidate is a 2016 a4 alltrack. Can get those around 30k and then if market drops like I predict (with low confidence in my prediction skills) then I can sell it for 25 and get a range rover autobiography that now lists for 130k for 100k or less.
 

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Life's too short to play a waiting game. If money isn't an issue just pull the trigger and be happy. What I am kicking myself on is not buying an 812 Superfast when I could have got one for 290-320k all day. Now they're 400-450k. Could have made a killing. Now I'm looking at the poor man F12 and those even went up from 180-220 to 240-280k. :rolleyes:
'poor man f12' haha, i can only dream!
 

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i do not think the market will drop much at all. Tim said it best, new car deliveries are still challenged and cannot meet demand which will therefore continue to prop up the used car market, regardless of what the loan interest rate is doing. people need cars even if its taking a bigger chunk of their pay check to pay for it

it also depends on the type of car we're talking about. r8's and gt3's which i happen to involved in quite a bit i dont expect are ever really going to come back down again. obviously not the market you are asking about but still.

the other thing people tend to not consider with inflation is even if it is transitory and eventually comes back down, unless it goes negative, which it almost never does, the value of that dollar will remain weaker forever than it was prior. so something $100 a year ago after 12 months of 10% inflation will cost $110 going forward, even if the fed wins the fight and inflation comes back down to to their 2% goal. thats an oversimplified example of course but one that is valid as we always like to reminisce over what a particular car used to cost 5-10 years ago when in reality adjusted for compound inflation over that period of time it might not actuall cost much more today
 

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Chips shortage is likely to persist. Spinning up new fabrication facilites outside of somewhere like China is going to take years. Before anyone asks, I am long TSMC :p

So all the supply of new cars will get bottlenecked and our v10s and v8s should hold value for a while yet!
 

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coming from the dealership world i can for sure say car prices will go down on your more normal inventory. such as your civics, pick ups, and your everday run the mill suv. This will also go for more normal sports cars such as your mustangs, basic 911's, challengers and cars such as the plentiful huracans and garllardos. However i do see a small drop coming for collector cars but nothing major to what your seeing now. models such as the v10 6mt/ v8 6mt from audi or lamborghini or your ford GT's/ JDM icons or your e46/e92 m3's that gained collector satus now will drop 5-7% but not much more then that Welcome to the new normal get what you want now there only going to keep going up
 

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With the Canadian luxury tax kicking in soon enough, that has never been truer. When I got my 911 4S (992) and I knew I was paying $7K over MSRP for a 2 yr old with 6K km's, I knew it's just how things be from now on. I am still hopefully though that this bubble will burst in a year or two and prices will normalize as I would love a Huracan at $250K which it used to be pre-COVID and now the closest example is about $100K more than that. COVID really messed everything up in more ways than one.
 

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With the Canadian luxury tax kicking in soon enough, that has never been truer. When I got my 911 4S (992) and I knew I was paying $7K over MSRP for a 2 yr old with 6K km's, I knew it's just how things be from now on. I am still hopefully though that this bubble will burst in a year or two and prices will normalize as I would love a Huracan at $250K which it used to be pre-COVID and now the closest example is about $100K more than that. COVID really messed everything up in more ways than one.
Completely forgot to mention the Luxury tax I’m curious to see how that effects us in the Canadian market
 

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Working at a dealership, IMO prices will continue as they are for quite some time. Most manufacturers have continued to lower their forecasted production of new vehicles. Companies like Honda and Toyota have suggested 4th quarter of 2023 as maybe the beginning of a return to normal. You have dealerships fighting over used cars at auctions because the used car trade cycle is broken due to lack of new inventory. Also, because of the ADM and inflation the crazy prices people are paying are going to result in greatly increased negative equity and longer loans. This will cause the trade cycle to not be the normal 3 years further limiting the available used inventory probably for years.
 

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Life's too short to play a waiting game. If money isn't an issue just pull the trigger and be happy. What I am kicking myself on is not buying an 812 Superfast when I could have got one for 290-320k all day. Now they're 400-450k. Could have made a killing. Now I'm looking at the poor man F12 and those even went up from 180-220 to 240-280k. :rolleyes:
I had a deposit on a 458 main dealer - regret that too. Now looking at Toyota MR2's :ROFLMAO:
 
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Plenty of good points made here. I would add that we will continue to see people hold onto cars longer than what had been typical in the US. This will continue to put pressure on used car prices as interest rates and inflation do a strange dance. For those in the automotive aftermarket industry, these are certainly tailwinds as the average age of a vehicle on the road has now surpassed 12 years.


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